A single word can crack the facade of a great power’s confidence.

一个词就足以击碎大国自信的外衣。

That’s what happened last month when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan told lawmakers in Tokyo that a Chinese attack or blockade against Taiwan would constitute a threat to Japan’s “survival,” a term that, under Japanese law, would permit the country to deploy its military overseas.

上月，日本首相高市早苗在东京对议员表示，中国对台湾发动攻击或实施封锁将构成对日本“存亡”的威胁——根据日本法律，该表述意味着日本可以向海外派遣军队。

Ms. Takaichi merely said aloud what has long been understood — that a crisis involving Taiwan would threaten Japan’s national security. But her comments were among the clearest public signals yet that Tokyo could help defend Taiwan from potential Chinese aggression.

高市早苗只是将长期存在的认识说了出来——任何涉及台湾的危机将威胁日本的国家安全。但她的言论是迄今最明确的公开信号，表明东京可能协助台湾抵御潜在的中国侵略。

Beijing reacted as if Ms. Takaichi, a conservative politician, had declared war. Chinese state media has portrayed her as reviving the militarist rhetoric used to justify Japan’s aggression during World War II, and a senior Chinese envoy posted what amounted to an online threat to behead Ms. Takaichi. China has halted some Japanese imports, discouraged Chinese tourism to Japan and stepped up coast guard patrols around islands claimed by both countries.

北京的反应就如同高市早苗这位保守派政治人物已经宣战。中国官方媒体指责其复活了二战期间为侵略行为辩护的军国主义言论，一名中国领事在网上发布了相当于斩首高市早苗的威胁。中国已经停止了一些日本产品的进口，试图劝阻中国人赴日旅游，并加强了在争议岛屿周边的海警巡逻。

Beijing routinely lashes out at Tokyo because of lingering resentment over Japan’s wartime past, which included a brutal invasion and occupation of China. This time, however, the fury is rooted in something more dangerous: China’s growing anxiety that one of its bedrock goals — isolating Taiwan and forcing it to submit to unification on Chinese terms — is slipping away.

由于对日本战时历史（包括野蛮侵略和占领中国）的愤恨挥之不去，北京经常猛烈抨击东京。然而，这一次，愤怒的根源在于更危险的事情：中国越来越担心自己的一个基本目标——孤立台湾并迫使其按照中国的条件接受统一——正逐渐失控。

The Chinese Communist Party has long assumed that time and pressure would slowly wear Taiwan down. If President Xi Jinping of China concludes that bet has failed, he may escalate to sharper forms of pressure sooner than planned. It is vital for regional security that Tokyo and Washington stand firm and signal clearly that increased Chinese coercion of Taiwan will trigger a coordinated response.

中国共产党一直认为时间和压力会慢慢瓦解台湾。如果中国国家主席习近平认定这一策略失败，他可能会比原计划更早采取更尖锐的施压手段。对地区安全而言，东京和华盛顿坚守立场，明确表示中国对台湾的胁迫将引发协调一致的回应将至关重要。

For years, China has applied a slow diplomatic and economic squeeze on Taiwan, paired with near-daily military drills and disinformation campaigns. These hover just below red lines that might cause the United States and its allies to get involved. China’s goal is straightforward: to persuade Taiwan’s people that resistance is futile and capitulation is the only way to avoid a disastrous conflict.

多年来，中国持续对台湾实施缓慢的外交经济挤压，同时配合近乎每日的军事演习和虚假信息攻势。这些行动始终游走在可能引发美日盟友介入的红线边缘。中国的目标很明确：让台湾人民相信抵抗是徒劳的，投降是避免灾难性冲突的唯一途径。

Ms. Takaichi’s remark punctures that logic. Because Japan hosts U.S. bases that would be central to any response to Chinese aggression, her comment serves as a warning to Beijing that dramatically increasing pressure on Taiwan is likely to draw a joint allied response. That prospect is deeply unsettling for Beijing, which has spent decades trying to prevent Taiwan’s security from becoming viewed as a shared regional responsibility.

高市早苗的言论戳破了这种逻辑。由于驻日美军基地是应对中国侵略的核心力量，她的言论是在警告北京，若大幅加强对台施压，极可能招致盟友联合反击。这种前景令北京深感不安，几十年来，北京一直试图阻止台湾的安全被视为一项共同的地区责任。

The timing of Ms. Takaichi’s statement compounds another, deeper worry for China.

高市早苗发表声明的时机加剧了中国另一个更深层次的担忧。

Taiwan’s next presidential election is scheduled for early 2028. If the ruling Democratic Progressive Party — which resists Beijing’s unification ultimatums — wins again, it would extend a run that started in 2016 and, in Beijing’s eyes, entrenches a distinct Taiwanese identity and normalizes the island’s defiance. If that happens, China may feel it has no choice but to squeeze Taiwan even harder.

台湾下届总统选举定于2028年初举行。若执政的民进党——该党抵制北京的统一最后通牒——再次胜选，将延续自2016年开始的执政周期。在中方看来，这将巩固台湾的独特身份认同，使该岛的对抗常态化。若那样的结果发生，中国可能认为别无选择，只能对台湾施加更大压力。

That does not mean an invasion would be inevitable. But it does raise the likelihood that China would restrict trade with Taiwan — which is extensive, and economically vital for the island, despite the tensions — and increase cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and military feints around Taiwan. This could significantly raise the odds of an accidental clash.

这并不意味着入侵是不可避免的。但这确实增加了中国限制与台湾贸易的可能性——尽管两岸关系紧张，但这些贸易往来仍十分广泛，且对台湾经济至关重要——并增加对台湾周边关键基础设施的网络攻击和军事佯攻。这可能会大大增加意外冲突的几率。

Beijing’s need to control the story with the Chinese public adds even more volatility. Whenever the Communist Party faces a foreign challenge, it gins up Chinese nationalist outrage. That this involves Japan, a particularly combustible source of Chinese resentment, is especially fraught. Whipping up nationalism — as China is doing now — boxes the Communist Party into a corner where any future compromise with Japan would look like a betrayal of the public fury it had encouraged.

北京需要在国内公众面前控制叙事，这增加了更多的波动性。每当共产党面临外部挑战时，就会煽动国内的民族主义愤怒情绪。而这一次涉及日本，一个特别容易点燃中国怨恨情绪的国家，这尤其令人担忧。像中国现在这样煽动民族主义情绪，会把共产党逼入棘手处境，未来对日本的任何妥协都将被视为背叛了它自己激起的公众怒火。

In a sign of Beijing’s alarm over the issue, Mr. Xi has sought to drive a wedge between Washington and Tokyo, appealing directly to Mr. Trump to rein in Japan. Mr. Trump does not appear to have taken the bait. According to the Chinese readout of the call, he offered only a polite acknowledgment that Washington “understands” how important Taiwan is to China.

习近平试图在华盛顿与东京之间制造分歧，直接呼吁特朗普约束日本，由此可见北京方面在这一问题上的警惕。特朗普似乎没有上钩。根据中方对通话内容的解读，他只是礼貌地承认华盛顿“理解”台湾对中国的重要性。

Mr. Trump’s muted response and his recent approval of about $1 billion in additional arms for Taiwan seemingly dashes — for now — any hope Beijing may have had of persuading Mr. Trump to soften his support for Taiwan in exchange for Chinese cooperation on trade. Mr. Xi now faces a combination he had hoped to avoid: an American president who does not seem ready to trade away Taiwan and a Japanese leader who is willing to state plainly that a crisis could ensnare her country.

特朗普的低调回应，加之其近期批准向台湾追加约10亿美元军售，似乎暂时粉碎了北京试图说服特朗普以贸易合作为筹码软化对台支持的希望。习近平如今面临着他本希望避免的局面：一位不愿在台湾问题上妥协的美国总统，以及一位敢于直言危机可能波及自己国家的日本领导人。

This is a pivotal moment for regional stability. Japan should hold firm, and the United States should stand with it. If either backs down, Beijing will treat it as proof that pressure pays. But if Washington, Tokyo and their partners signal that continued coercion by China against Taiwan will trigger coordinated countermeasures, they can change the calculus for China, making clear that further escalation could spark a wider confrontation that Beijing may not be able to control.

当前是关系到地区稳定的关键时刻。日本应保持坚定立场，美国应与其并肩而立。若任一方退缩，北京必将其视作施压奏效的证据。但如果华盛顿、东京及其伙伴明确传递信号——中国持续胁迫台湾将引发协同反制措施——就能改变中国的战略考量，使其清醒认识到：进一步升级可能引发北京难以掌控的更大范围对抗。

Ms. Takaichi did not create this situation; years of relentless Chinese coercion did. Her remark merely made explicit what has long been implicit — that if Beijing keeps tightening the screws on Taiwan, it will inevitably pull in other democracies because the island’s fate now bears directly on their security.

造成当前局面的并非高市早苗，而是中国多年来的持续胁迫。她的言论不过是将长期隐含的现实搬上台面——倘若北京持续对台湾施压，必然会牵动其他民主国家，因为台湾的命运如今直接关乎这些国家的安全。

Airing out the shared stakes faced by all the players in this equation, as Ms. Takaichi has done, is a surer path to stability than pretending that silence will keep the peace.

比起假装沉默能维持和平，像高市早苗所做的那样，将各方共同面临的风险公之于众，反而能够更可靠地维护稳定。